Blockstream CEO and Bitcoin (BTC) proponent Adam Back says the flagship crypto asset may explode to a market capitalization of $200 trillion in the next nine years, meaning a price of around $10 million per coin. .
in a tweet threadBack says that based on historical performance, BTC is still on track to continue its trend of recovering by an average of 100% per year.
“Earlier this year I was curious about the claim ‘Bitcoin 2x per year on average’. Check: the decade from January 2013 to December 2022 Bitcoin rose 2,036x/year (1,200x in a decade). If that continues, we will cross $10K/BTC and $200B market cap by the end of the next 2 halvings, roughly 9 years.
200 trillion dollars is a [Hal Finney] Bitcoin Market Cap Prediction Number 2009. It’s A LOT, displacing a significant portion of the pool of value premiums in bonds, real estate money premiums, gold, stock portfolios 60:40, etc. Some think adoption will slow, derivatives will reduce volatility.”
Veteran Bitcoiner and HashCash inventor says BTC doesn’t necessarily need to see $100 trillion flow to reach the same market capitalization, due to the illiquid markets and the tendency of Bitcoin investors to hold their coins at long term.
“Also keep in mind that bitcoin doesn’t have to absorb anywhere near $100 trillion to reach that market capitalization, due to the relative paucity of trading and cold storage/hodl investors. If Bitcoin really moves, it will be harder to get someone to sell, they will have to get it out of their cold wallets.
Given the volatility, I think Bitcoin can go wildly overshoot and take advantage of one of these $100-300 trillion market caps, correct, and then regain more stable adoption over time. I suspect that people with average entry points, relative to the current price, will not have much incentive to sell in size.”
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $21,521, roughly 46,000% away from a market capitalization of $200 trillion.
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