Widely followed crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen warns that Ethereum (ETH) rival Cardano (ADA) is repeating a downward pattern from 2019.
In a new strategy session, Cowen argues that Cardano has yet to find a bottom by comparing its 2023 share price to its market structure in the second half of 2019, when ADA kept finding new lows.
“The second half of 2019 was probably the hardest part of the cycle [for Cardano] because it wasn’t very exciting. You have just seen the altcoin market slowly bleed out.
There were certainly a lot of bombs. I mean, there’s no shortage of bombs. We had tons of them. This one here [in 2019 from $0.035 to $0.050] was 41%. This one here [from $0.041 to $0.58] it was also 40%. We had a lot of bombs like that and they finally faded.”
According to Cowen, ADA rallied in 2023 similar to 2019 when the token formed double top patterns and then fell below the bull market support band, which in technical analysis is the combination of the 20-week simple moving average (SMA) and 21-week EMA.
“And we saw the market capitulate to new lows [with ADA at $0.077], and even then it didn’t score the bare minimum for ADA. Cause we watched it pick up and then fade away [to $0.017]. I know it was not a popular opinion to talk about this. But so far it has been no different.
We saw ADA put a minimum in 2022 [at $0.315] like he did in 2018 [at $0.028]. We saw it pump in 2023 just like it did here in 2019. You hit two highs here (in 2019) just like we got here (in 2023). We are below the support band of the bull market (in July 2019), just like it did (in June 2023). It has played out almost identically, almost identically to the last cycle.”
Cowen is also keeping an eye on the performance of ADA against Bitcoin (ADA/BTC).
He highlights how ADA didn’t bottom out against Bitcoin until the third quarter of 2019 and stayed at those lows for another six months before recovering, which he says could play out for ADA again in the current market cycle.
“Remember that ADA/Bitcoin didn’t bottom in the last cycle until the third quarter of 2019. And even then, ADA/Bitcoin held those lows for really half a year before rising again. At this point, we haven’t even convincingly found a level where ADA/Bitcoin holds those lows.”
ADA is trading at $0.30 at the time of writing, down 4.3% over the past 24 hours.
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